Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 48.15%. A win for Ferencvaros had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Ferencvaros win was 0-1 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Red Star Belgrade would win this match.