Leipzig logo
DFB-Pokal | Quarter-Finals
Apr 5, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Dortmund logo

RB Leipzig
2 - 0
Dortmund

Werner (22'), Orban (90+8')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: RB Leipzig 0-3 Mainz
Saturday, April 1 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Bayern 4-2 Dortmund
Saturday, April 1 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.36%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
RB LeipzigDrawBorussia Dortmund
43.87% (0.039000000000001 0.04)22.69% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)33.43% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Both teams to score 65.59% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.84% (0.010000000000005 0.01)35.16% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.83% (0.010999999999996 0.01)57.17% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.38% (0.022000000000006 0.02)16.62% (-0.02 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.55% (0.033000000000001 0.03)46.45% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.66% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)21.34% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.7% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)54.3% (0.023000000000003 0.02)
Score Analysis
    RB Leipzig 43.87%
    Borussia Dortmund 33.43%
    Draw 22.7%
RB LeipzigDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 8.82% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 6.36% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-0 @ 5.71% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-1 @ 5.28% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 4.08% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 3.42% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 2.37% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.83% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.53% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-3 @ 0.94%
Other @ 3.54%
Total : 43.87%
1-1 @ 9.83% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 6.81%
0-0 @ 3.55% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-3 @ 2.1% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.41%
Total : 22.7%
1-2 @ 7.59% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 5.48% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 4.23% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.91% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 3.51% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 2.18% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 1.51% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.36% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.67%
Total : 33.43%

How you voted: RB Leipzig vs Dortmund

RB Leipzig
32.4%
Draw
11.8%
Borussia Dortmund
55.9%
136
Head to Head
Mar 3, 2023 7.30pm
Dortmund
2-1
RB Leipzig
Reus (21' pen.), Can (39')
Ozcan (29'), Brandt (55')
Forsberg (74')
Nkunku (15'), Haidara (17'), Halstenberg (38'), Silva (45+3'), Henrichs (52')
Sep 10, 2022 2.30pm
RB Leipzig
3-0
Dortmund
Orban (6'), Szoboszlai (45'), Haidara (84')

Meunier (58')
Apr 2, 2022 5.30pm
Dortmund
1-4
RB Leipzig
Malen (84')
Hazard (45'), Can (80'), Malen (88')
Laimer (21', 30'), Nkunku (58'), Olmo (86')
Kampl (54')
Nov 6, 2021 5.30pm
RB Leipzig
2-1
Dortmund
Nkunku (29'), Poulsen (68')
Adams (40'), Poulsen (65'), Szoboszlai (88')
Reus (52')
Bellingham (31'), Reus (31'), Witsel (38'), Meunier (55'), Moukoko (89')
May 13, 2021 7.45pm
Final
RB Leipzig
1-4
Dortmund
Olmo (71')
Upamecano (45'), Olmo (81')
Sancho (5', 45'), Braut Haaland (28', 87')
Can (15'), Bellingham (25'), Dahoud (50'), Sancho (81'), Hummels (90')
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