Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 32.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.