Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 23

Mar 3, 2023 at 7.30pm UK

Signal Iduna Park

Dortmund
2 - 1
RB Leipzig

Reus (21' pen.), Can (39')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Forsberg (74')

The Match

Match Report

Marco Reus scores the 159th goal of his Borussia Dortmund career to help Edin Terzic's beat RB Leipzig 2-1 and move three points clear at the top of the Bundesliga.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Hoffenheim 0-1 Dortmund
Saturday, February 25 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

RB Leipzig

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-1 Frankfurt
Saturday, February 25 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 40.57%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 35.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.2%) and 0-2 (5.8%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	RB Leipzig
35.66% ( -2.22)	23.77% ( -0.15)	40.57% ( 2.37)

Both teams to score 62.13% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.07% (

0.53)

39.93% (

-0.53)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.71% (

0.55)

62.29% (

-0.55)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.63% (

-0.89)

22.37% (

0.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.14% (

-1.36)

55.86% (

1.36)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.03% (

1.35)

19.97% (

-1.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.87% (

2.13)

52.13% (

-2.13)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 35.66%

RB Leipzig 40.57%

Draw 23.77%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	RB Leipzig
2-1 @ 8.07% ( -0.3) 1-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.35) 2-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.41) 3-1 @ 4.03% ( -0.27) 3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 2.5% ( -0.28) 4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.14) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.46% Total : 35.66%	1-1 @ 10.77% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.47% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.77%	1-2 @ 8.68% ( 0.27) 0-1 @ 7.2% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 5.8% ( 0.33) 1-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.33) 2-3 @ 3.49% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 3.11% ( 0.3) 1-4 @ 1.88% ( 0.2) 2-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.12) 0-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.17) Other @ 3.1% Total : 40.57%