Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 68.1%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 13.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 1-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.45%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (3.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.