Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 58.96%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 18.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.