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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 67.98%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 14.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 1-0 (7.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.94%), while for a FC Koln win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result | ||
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | FC Koln |
67.98% ( 0.46) | 17.65% ( -0.3) | 14.37% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 58.44% ( 0.76) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.81% ( 1.15) | 33.19% ( -1.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.05% ( 1.31) | 54.94% ( -1.31) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.05% ( 0.41) | 8.94% ( -0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.46% ( 0.98) | 30.53% ( -0.98) |
FC Koln Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.18% ( 0.54) | 35.82% ( -0.54) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.4% ( 0.55) | 72.6% ( -0.55) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | FC Koln |
2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 9.34% ( -0.21) 1-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.32) 3-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 7.51% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.1) 5-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.11) 5-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.07) 5-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.07) 6-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.06) Other @ 4.06% Total : 67.98% | 1-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.2% ( -0.2) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.23% Total : 17.65% | 1-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.4% ( 0) Other @ 2.24% Total : 14.37% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 31 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 77 | 22 | 55 | 81 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 31 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 89 | 38 | 51 | 69 |
3 | Stuttgart | 31 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 70 | 38 | 32 | 64 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 73 | 35 | 38 | 62 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 59 | 39 | 20 | 57 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 42 | 5 | 45 |
7 | Freiburg | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 40 |
8 | Augsburg | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 39 |
9 | Hoffenheim | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 55 | 63 | -8 | 39 |
10 | Heidenheim | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 37 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 37 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 34 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 53 | 60 | -7 | 32 |
14 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 30 |
15 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 31 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 37 | 62 | -25 | 30 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 31 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 28 |
17 | FC Koln | 31 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 31 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 30 | 73 | -43 | 17 |
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