Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 9, 2023 at 2pm UK

Stade Rene Gaillard

Malawi
2 - 2
Guinea

Saizi (23'), Chaziya (88')
Banda (63')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Camara (56'), Sow (58')
Diawara (68')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Malawi and Guinea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Malawi 0-0 South Africa (3-5 pen.)
Sunday, July 16 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Guinea

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Brazil 4-1 Guinea
Saturday, June 17 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

While Malawi and Guinea have nothing at stake here, we anticipate an action-packed affair at the Bingu National Stadium nonetheless. Given the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, we see Guinea coming out on top in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 48.61%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Guinea had a probability of 24.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Guinea win it was 0-1 (8.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.

Result
Malawi	Draw	Guinea
48.61% ( -0.16)	27% ( 0.04)	24.38% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 45.53% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.35% (

-0.08)

58.65% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.8% (

-0.06)

79.2% (

0.06)

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.77% (

-0.11)

24.23% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.43% (

-0.15)

58.58% (

0.15)

Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.09% (

0.06)

39.92% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.43% (

0.05)

76.58% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Malawi 48.61%

Guinea 24.38%

Draw 27%

Malawi	Draw	Guinea
1-0 @ 13.71% 2-0 @ 9.72% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.22% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.39% Total : 48.61%	1-1 @ 12.59% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.67% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0) Other @ 0.64% Total : 27%	0-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.08% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.37% Total : 24.38%