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Africa Cup of Nations

Ethiopia national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Mar 27, 2023 at 8pm UK
 
Guinea national football team

Ethiopia
2 - 3
Guinea

Markneh (34'), Jima (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Keita (4'), Moriba (42'), Guilavogui (70')
Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Ethiopia and Guinea.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea 2-0 Ethiopia
Friday, March 24 at 8.30pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Guinea

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea 2-0 Ethiopia
Friday, March 24 at 8.30pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 50.28%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Guinea had a probability of 18.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.73%) and 2-1 (7.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.38%), while for a Guinea win it was 0-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.

Result
EthiopiaDrawGuinea
50.28% (0.0059999999999931 0.01)30.77% (0.107 0.11)18.95% (-0.118 -0.12)
Both teams to score 31.95% (-0.317 -0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
27.18% (-0.318 -0.32)72.82% (0.31400000000001 0.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
11.01% (-0.194 -0.19)88.99% (0.191 0.19)
Ethiopia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.78% (-0.16799999999999 -0.17)30.22% (0.165 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.62% (-0.199 -0.2)66.38% (0.19499999999999 0.19)
Guinea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
45.78% (-0.34399999999999 -0.34)54.22% (0.34 0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.59% (-0.212 -0.21)87.41% (0.20700000000001 0.21)
Score Analysis
    Ethiopia 50.27%
    Guinea 18.94%
    Draw 30.77%
EthiopiaDrawGuinea
1-0 @ 19.6% (0.14 0.14)
2-0 @ 11.73% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 7.18% (-0.055 -0.05)
3-0 @ 4.68% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.87% (-0.035 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.4% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 50.27%
0-0 @ 16.38% (0.19 0.19)
1-1 @ 12% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-2 @ 2.2% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 30.77%
0-1 @ 10.02% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 3.67% (-0.049 -0.05)
0-2 @ 3.07% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 18.94%

How you voted: Ethiopia vs Guinea

Ethiopia
57.1%
Draw
21.4%
Guinea
21.4%
14
Head to Head
Mar 24, 2023 8.30pm
Guinea
2-0
Ethiopia
Kamano (39'), Bayo (73')
Guilavogui (26'), Bayo (35')

Yohannes (18'), Hamid (25'), Panomo (45')