Ethiopia national football team
Friendlies 3
Mar 19, 2023 at 12pm UK
University of Science and Technology Stadium
Rwanda national football team

Ethiopia
1 - 0
Rwanda

Markneh (82')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Coverage of the International Friendlies Friendlies 3 clash between Ethiopia and Rwanda.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions
Last Game: Libya 3-1 Ethiopia
Saturday, January 21 at 7pm in African Nations Championship
Next Game: Guinea vs. Ethiopia
Friday, March 24 at 9.30pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Rwanda

All competitions
Last Game: Sudan 0-1 Rwanda
Saturday, November 19 at 2pm in International Friendlies
Next Game: Benin vs. Rwanda
Wednesday, March 22 at 3pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 52.65%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Rwanda had a probability of 18.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.24%) and 2-1 (7.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.79%), while for a Rwanda win it was 0-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 19% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ethiopia in this match.

Result
EthiopiaDrawRwanda
52.65% (-0.65 -0.65)29.29% (0.153 0.15)18.07% (0.496 0.5)
Both teams to score 33.61% (0.339 0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
29.92% (0.039999999999999 0.04)70.08% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
12.72% (0.025 0.03)87.29% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Ethiopia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.38% (-0.295 -0.3)27.62% (0.295 0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.84% (-0.381 -0.38)63.16% (0.381 0.38)
Rwanda Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
46.43% (0.65499999999999 0.65)53.57% (-0.65499999999999 -0.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.99% (0.402 0.4)87.01% (-0.40300000000001 -0.4)
Score Analysis
    Ethiopia 52.63%
    Rwanda 18.07%
    Draw 29.28%
EthiopiaDrawRwanda
1-0 @ 19.03% (-0.19 -0.19)
2-0 @ 12.24% (-0.22 -0.22)
2-1 @ 7.65% (0.013 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.25% (-0.14 -0.14)
3-1 @ 3.28% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.69% (-0.06 -0.06)
4-1 @ 1.06% (-0.015 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.02% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 1.42%
Total : 52.63%
0-0 @ 14.79% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
1-1 @ 11.88% (0.12 0.12)
2-2 @ 2.39% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 29.28%
0-1 @ 9.24% (0.167 0.17)
1-2 @ 3.71% (0.108 0.11)
0-2 @ 2.88% (0.107 0.11)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 18.07%