Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2023 at 8.30pm UK

Stade 28 Septembre

Guinea
2 - 0
Ethiopia

Kamano (39'), Bayo (73')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Guinea and Ethiopia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guinea

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Ivory Coast 3-1 Guinea
Tuesday, September 27 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Ethiopia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Ethiopia 1-0 Rwanda
Sunday, March 19 at 12pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cameroon	3	4	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	0	4
3	Cape Verde	3	0	4
4	Ethiopia	3	-4	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 14.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.7%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.

Result
Guinea	Draw	Ethiopia
61.76% ( 1.3)	23.98% ( -0.42)	14.27% ( -0.88)

Both teams to score 38.51% (

-0.79)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.4% (

0.04)

59.6% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.07% (

0.03)

79.93% (

-0.03)

Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.86% (

0.51)

19.14% (

-0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.21% (

0.83)

50.79% (

-0.83)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.63% (

-1.28)

52.37% (

1.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.76% (

-0.84)

86.24% (

0.84)

Score Analysis

Guinea 61.75%

Ethiopia 14.27%

Draw 23.97%

Guinea	Draw	Ethiopia
1-0 @ 16.57% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.42) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.34) 3-1 @ 4.88% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.19) 4-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.44% Total : 61.75%	1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 10.02% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.37% Total : 23.97%	0-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.17) Other @ 2.22% Total : 14.27%