COSAFA Cup | Group Stage

Jul 6, 2023 at 5pm UK

King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Zambia
0 - 1
Malawi

FT(HT: 0-1)

Katebe (17' og.)

Coverage of the COSAFA Cup Group Stage clash between Zambia and Malawi.

Form, Standings, Stats

Zambia

All competitions

Last Game: Zambia 3-0 Ivory Coast
Saturday, June 17 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Zambia	3	4	7
2	Namibia	3	2	7
3	Uganda	3	-3	1
4	Ivory Coast	3	-3	1

Malawi

All competitions

Last Game: Ethiopia 0-0 Malawi
Tuesday, June 20 at 3pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 53.09%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 19.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (8.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.

Result
Zambia	Draw	Malawi
53.09% ( 0.02)	27.46% ( 0.04)	19.46% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 39.08% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.95% (

-0.15)

64.05% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.78% (

-0.11)

83.22% (

0.11)

Zambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.43% (

-0.06)

24.56% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.95% (

-0.09)

59.05% (

0.08)

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.81% (

-0.16)

48.19% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.63% (

-0.11)

83.37% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Zambia 53.07%

Malawi 19.46%

Draw 27.45%

Zambia	Draw	Malawi
1-0 @ 16.61% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 11.66% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.46% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.92% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.07% Total : 53.07%	1-1 @ 12.13% 0-0 @ 11.83% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.38% Total : 27.45%	0-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.15% Total : 19.46%