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Africa Cup of Nations

Ethiopia national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Jun 20, 2023 at 3pm UK
Estadio Nacional do Zimpeto
Malawi national football team

Ethiopia
0 - 0
Malawi

FT

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Ethiopia and Malawi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Ethiopia 2-3 Guinea
Monday, March 27 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Malawi

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mozambique 1-1 Malawi
Wednesday, June 14 at 9am in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 46.24%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 22.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.03%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood.

Result
EthiopiaDrawMalawi
46.24% (4.224 4.22)30.79% (9.169 9.17)22.98% (-13.394 -13.39)
Both teams to score 35.62% (-35.084 -35.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
29.49% (-41.65 -41.65)70.5% (41.648 41.65)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
12.45% (-37.754 -37.75)87.55% (37.752 37.75)
Ethiopia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.87% (-16.345 -16.35)31.13% (16.342 16.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.54% (-24.407 -24.41)67.46% (24.404 24.4)
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.72% (-31.253 -31.25)48.28% (31.25 31.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.57% (-36.265 -36.27)83.43% (36.263 36.26)
Score Analysis
    Ethiopia 46.23%
    Malawi 22.97%
    Draw 30.78%
EthiopiaDrawMalawi
1-0 @ 17.53% (12.717 12.72)
2-0 @ 10.23% (5.631 5.63)
2-1 @ 7.45% (-0.691 -0.69)
3-0 @ 3.98% (1.05 1.05)
3-1 @ 2.9% (-2.288 -2.29)
4-0 @ 1.16% (-0.239 -0.24)
3-2 @ 1.06% (-3.537 -3.54)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 46.23%
0-0 @ 15.03% (12.512 12.51)
1-1 @ 12.77% (4.249 4.25)
2-2 @ 2.71% (-4.495 -4.5)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 30.78%
0-1 @ 10.94% (6.482 6.48)
1-2 @ 4.65% (-2.893 -2.89)
0-2 @ 3.99% (0.039 0.04)
1-3 @ 1.13% (-3.322 -3.32)
0-3 @ 0.97% (-1.362 -1.36)
Other @ 1.3%
Total : 22.97%

How you voted: Ethiopia vs Malawi

Ethiopia
69.0%
Draw
27.6%
Malawi
3.4%
29
Head to Head
Jun 5, 2022 2pm
Group Stage
Malawi
2-1
Ethiopia
Mhango (10' pen., 34' pen.)
Sanudi (39'), Mhone (90+3')
Nasir Ahmed (68' pen.)
Debebe (33'), Baye (36')
> Preview
Mar 17, 2021 12pm
Friendlies 3
Ethiopia
4-0
Malawi
Mohammed (16'), Kebede (45'), Dagnachew (56'), Nassir (71')