Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 53.4%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 21.09%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.66%) and 1-2 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 1-0 (7.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Real Valladolid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
21.09% ( -0.12) | 25.5% ( -0.04) | 53.4% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 45.97% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.82% ( 0.04) | 56.17% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.77% ( 0.03) | 77.23% ( -0.04) |
Real Valladolid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.25% ( -0.1) | 41.75% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.78% ( -0.09) | 78.21% ( 0.08) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.92% ( 0.08) | 21.07% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.11% ( 0.13) | 53.89% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Real Valladolid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 7.69% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 5.23% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 3.36% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.19% ( -0) 3-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.14% Total : 21.09% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.8% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.67% Total : 25.5% | 0-1 @ 13.69% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 10.66% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.32% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 5.54% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 4.84% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 2.16% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.2% Total : 53.38% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 50 | 19 | 31 | 38 |
2 | Real Madrid | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 13 | 21 | 36 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 35 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 32 |
5 | Villarreal | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 26 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 24 |
7 | Osasuna | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 |
8 | Mallorca | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 24 |
9 | GironaGirona | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 22 |
10 | Celta Vigo | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 21 |
11 | Real BetisBetis | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 21 |
12 | Rayo Vallecano | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 19 |
13 | Sevilla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 19 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 18 |
15 | Getafe | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
16 | AlavesAlaves | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 15 |
17 | Leganes | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
18 | Espanyol | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 13 |
19 | Valencia | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 10 |
20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 34 | -23 | 9 |
> La Liga Full Table |