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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 45.14%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 32.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.48%) and 2-0 (5.91%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
45.14% ( 0.51) | 22.61% ( -0.09) | 32.24% ( -0.42) |
Both teams to score 65.38% ( 0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.77% ( 0.26) | 35.23% ( -0.26) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.75% ( 0.28) | 57.24% ( -0.29) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.83% ( 0.29) | 16.16% ( -0.3) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.37% ( 0.53) | 45.62% ( -0.54) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.98% ( -0.11) | 22.01% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.67% ( -0.17) | 55.33% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
2-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.48% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 4.11% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.04) 4-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.84% Total : 45.14% | 1-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.77% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.61% | 1-2 @ 7.43% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.75% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 3.42% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.42% Total : 32.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 15 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 12 | 44 | 42 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 35 |
3 | Ajax | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 33 |
4 | Feyenoord | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 32 |
5 | FC Twente | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 28 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 26 |
7 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 22 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 21 |
9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 19 |
10 | Heerenveen | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 18 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 16 |
12 | Willem II | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 16 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
14 | Groningen | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 6 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 6 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |