Europa League

Europa League | League Stage

Oct 24, 2024 at 5.45pm UK

Tofiq Bahramov adina Respublika stadionu (Baki (Baku))

Qarabag
0 - 3
Ajax

Cafarquliyev (15'), Huseynov (22'), Benzia (45+4'), Medina (73'), Jankovic (81')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Taylor (36'), Weghorst (74' pen.), Akpom (77')
Taylor (20'), Fitz-Jim (45+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Qarabag FK and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

Last Game: Qarabag 1-2 Malmo
Thursday, October 3 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Ajax

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Heracles 3-4 Ajax
Sunday, October 20 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 55.18%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 23.73% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.32%) and 0-1 (7.05%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Qarabag FK	Draw	Ajax
23.73% ( -8.99)	21.09% ( -1.91)	55.18% ( 10.9)

Both teams to score 63.77% (

-0.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.69% (

2.63)

34.31% (

-2.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.78% (

2.91)

56.21% (

-2.91)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.91% (

-4.53)

27.09% (

4.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.52% (

-6.32)

62.47% (

6.32)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.47% (

4.64)

12.53% (

-4.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.44% (

8.86)

38.56% (

-8.87)

Score Analysis

Qarabag FK 23.73%

Ajax 55.18%

Draw 21.09%

Qarabag FK	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 6.01% ( -1.55) 1-0 @ 4.43% ( -1.33) 2-0 @ 2.9% ( -1.4) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.59) 3-1 @ 2.62% ( -1.14) 3-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.87) Other @ 3.79% Total : 23.73%	1-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.95) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.42) 0-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.48) 3-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.36% Total : 21.09%	1-2 @ 9.56% ( 0.61) 0-2 @ 7.32% ( 1.31) 0-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.23) 1-3 @ 6.62% ( 1.36) 0-3 @ 5.07% ( 1.54) 2-3 @ 4.32% ( 0.41) 1-4 @ 3.44% ( 1.12) 0-4 @ 2.63% ( 1.08) 2-4 @ 2.24% ( 0.52) 1-5 @ 1.43% ( 0.61) 0-5 @ 1.09% ( 0.55) 3-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.12) 2-5 @ 0.93% ( 0.32) Other @ 2.49% Total : 55.18%