Eredivisie | Gameweek 9

Oct 20, 2024 at 1.30pm UK

Erve Asito

Heracles
3 - 4
Ajax

Kulenovic (12', 76'), Engels (28')
De Keersmaecker (14')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Klaassen (25'), Traore (34'), Weghorst (63', 82' pen.)
Hato (34'), Brobbey (36'), Henderson (37'), Rasmussen (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Heracles and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Heracles

All competitions

Last Game: Go Ahead Eagles 4-1 Heracles
Sunday, October 6 at 11.15am in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ajax 3-1 Groningen
Sunday, October 6 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 62.02%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 18.98%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.65%) and 1-3 (7.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.08%), while for a Heracles win it was 2-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Heracles	Draw	Ajax
18.98% ( -0.03)	18.99% ( -0.07)	62.02% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 64.15% (

0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.36% (

0.3)

30.64% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.04% (

0.35)

51.96% (

-0.36)

Heracles Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.97% (

0.15)

29.03% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.07% (

0.18)

64.93% (

-0.18)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.39% (

0.11)

9.61% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.88% (

0.26)

32.12% (

-0.26)

Score Analysis

Heracles 18.98%

Ajax 62.02%

Draw 18.99%

Heracles	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 5% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 3.45% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 2.06% ( 0) Other @ 3.92% Total : 18.98%	1-1 @ 8.08% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.79% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.38% Total : 18.99%	1-2 @ 9.47% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.65% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 7.39% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.53% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 5.98% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 4.57% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 4.33% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 3.5% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 2.68% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 2.03% ( 0.02) 0-5 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) 2-5 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) 3-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.9% Total : 62.02%