Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 36.13% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.14%) and 2-0 (5.72%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Heracles in this match.