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Europa League

Qarabag
Europa League | League Stage
Oct 3, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Tofiq Bahramov adina Respublika stadionu (Baki (Baku))
Malmo

Qarabag
1 - 2
Malmo

Juninho (15')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Botheim (19', 47')
Bolin (72'), Friedrich (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Qarabag FK and Malmo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

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Last Game: Spurs 3-0 Qarabag
Thursday, September 26 at 8.35pm in Europa League
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Malmo

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Malmo 2-0 Mjallby AIF
Sunday, September 29 at 3.30pm in Swedish Allsvenskan

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 53.71%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 24.73% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.31%) and 0-1 (7.27%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Malmo in this match.

Result
Qarabag FKDrawMalmo
24.73% (0.656 0.66)21.56% (0.225 0.22)53.71% (-0.875 -0.88)
Both teams to score 63.21% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.45% (-0.387 -0.39)35.55% (0.393 0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.4% (-0.431 -0.43)57.6% (0.437 0.44)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.98% (0.289 0.29)27.02% (-0.283 -0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.63% (0.375 0.38)62.37% (-0.37 -0.37)
Malmo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.61% (-0.39200000000001 -0.39)13.39% (0.397 0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.69% (-0.803 -0.8)40.31% (0.808 0.81)
Score Analysis
    Qarabag FK 24.73%
    Malmo 53.71%
    Draw 21.56%
Qarabag FKDrawMalmo
2-1 @ 6.23% (0.129 0.13)
1-0 @ 4.73% (0.129 0.13)
2-0 @ 3.1% (0.109 0.11)
3-2 @ 2.73% (0.038 0.04)
3-1 @ 2.72% (0.077 0.08)
3-0 @ 1.35% (0.058 0.06)
Other @ 3.87%
Total : 24.73%
1-1 @ 9.52% (0.122 0.12)
2-2 @ 6.26% (0.037 0.04)
0-0 @ 3.62% (0.071 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.83% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 21.56%
1-2 @ 9.57% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-2 @ 7.31% (-0.074 -0.07)
0-1 @ 7.27% (0.036 0.04)
1-3 @ 6.41% (-0.11 -0.11)
0-3 @ 4.9% (-0.124 -0.12)
2-3 @ 4.2% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-4 @ 3.23% (-0.104 -0.1)
0-4 @ 2.46% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-4 @ 2.11% (-0.051 -0.05)
1-5 @ 1.3% (-0.062 -0.06)
0-5 @ 0.99% (-0.056 -0.06)
3-4 @ 0.92% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 53.71%

How you voted: Qarabag vs Malmo

Qarabag FK
71.1%
Draw
15.8%
Malmo
13.2%
114