Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 35.14% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.