Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 31

Apr 28, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
2 - 1
Lens

Aubameyang (1'), Gueye (85')
Gueye (41'), Balerdi (63')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Said (77')
Danso (54'), Wahi (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Marseille 2-2 Nice
Wednesday, April 24 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lens

All competitions

Last Game: Lens 1-0 Clermont
Saturday, April 20 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

This will be a very tricky fixture for the hosts to navigate. Not only are they facing a top-six side, but they are also just four days out from a crucial Europa League semi-final first-leg clash against Atalanta, and based on their recent performances, Gasset seems to have made the continental competition his side's primary focus, which could work in Lens' favour here. We feel this one will end level at the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 44.93%. A win for Lens had a probability of 29.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Lens win was 0-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Lens
44.93% ( 0.32)	25.2% ( -0)	29.87% ( -0.32)

Both teams to score 54.96% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.64% (

-0.13)

48.36% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.5% (

-0.12)

70.5% (

0.12)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.47% (

0.09)

21.53% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.4% (

0.14)

54.59% (

-0.15)

Lens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.04% (

-0.29)

29.96% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.93% (

-0.35)

66.07% (

0.35)

Score Analysis

Marseille 44.93%

Lens 29.87%

Draw 25.2%

Marseille	Draw	Lens
1-0 @ 9.91% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 4.69% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.8% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 44.93%	1-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.2%	0-1 @ 7.78% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.2% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.22% Total : 29.87%