Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 20

Feb 3, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Mewa Arena

Mainz
0 - 1
Werder Bremen

Krauss (67'), Amiri (79'), Richter (87'), Caci (88')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Ducksch (2')
Stark (35'), Friedl (45'), Bittencourt (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Frankfurt 1-0 Mainz
Friday, January 26 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Werder Bremen

All competitions

Last Game: Werder Bremen 3-1 Freiburg
Saturday, January 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen cruised to victory in their last meeting with Mainz, but a tighter affair could be on the cards on Saturday, with the onus being on the hosts to take to game to the visitors as they bid to end their miserable winless run. The two sides have struggled to keep clean sheets this term so there could be plenty of goalmouth action at both ends, but Bremen seem to have the greater threat in the final third and should ultimately find a way to outscore their opponents en route to claiming another three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 51.59%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 24.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 0-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Werder Bremen
51.59% ( 1.44)	23.75% ( 0.17)	24.66% ( -1.61)

Both teams to score 55.48% (

-2.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.28% (

-2.16)

45.72% (

2.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.96% (

-2.09)

68.04% (

2.09)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.26% (

-0.27)

17.73% (

0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.59% (

-0.47)

48.41% (

0.47)

Werder Bremen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.44% (

-2.44)

32.56% (

2.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.91% (

-2.83)

69.09% (

2.83)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 51.59%

Werder Bremen 24.66%

Draw 23.74%

Mainz 05	Draw	Werder Bremen
1-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.81) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.63) 3-1 @ 5.59% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.98% ( 0.32) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.22) 4-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.12) 4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.64% Total : 51.59%	1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( 0.51) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( -0.33) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.74%	0-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 6.29% ( -0.32) 0-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.29) 2-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.16) Other @ 2.52% Total : 24.66%