Werder Bremen host Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga on Wednesday, with the visitors able to leapfrog their forthcoming opponents in the table with a victory.
The hosts have lost five successive league games to slip perilously closer to the relegation zone.
Match preview
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Indeed, having only survived relegation via a playoff with Heidenheim last season, Florian Kohfeldt will be concerned that his side could be heading for a repeat of that this campaign.
After losing 4-1 to Borussia Dortmund on Sunday, Bremen are now only four points above Hertha Berlin in that position despite having played a game more.
Pal Dardai's side could have several games in hand before they play again due to a COVID-19 outbreak in their squad.
Die Werderaner had looked capable of causing an upset at BVB last time out, with Milot Rashica racing in behind before firing a superb finish past Marwin Hitz to open the scoring after only 14 minutes.
However, Giovanni Reyna scored his first goal since December from distance, before Erling Braut Haaland's quickfire brace all but sealed a comfortable victory for his side.
Mats Hummels' late header compounded Bremen's misery; ending their run of defeats against Mainz on Wednesday is now Kohfeldt's main priority ahead of their DFB-Pokal semi-final clash against RB Leipzig later in the month.
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Few would have given Mainz any hope of staying up after losing their first six matches of the season, but they have not looked back since appointing Bo Svensson as manager at the start of the calendar year.
The 41-year-old, who spent seven years at the club as a player between 2007 and 2014, has impressively guided his side out of the bottom three, although Die Nulfunfer were denied the chance to move even further away from the relegation zone after their scheduled match against Hertha at the weekend was postponed due to their opponents suffering a COVID-19 outbreak.
As such, Wednesday's trip to Bremen becomes an even bigger clash, with a win for Mainz taking them above their forthcoming opponents despite having played one fewer match than them.
With Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha both still below them in the table, too, that would surely signal a 12th successive season in Germany's top flight against all the odds.
Eren Dinkci's injury-time strike earned Bremen a 1-0 win in Mainz back in December, so Svensson will be hoping his players use that as added motivation to record a fourth win in five matches after securing a dramatic win at second-bottom FC Koln last time out.
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Team News
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Bremen will be without the suspended Christian Gross after the defender picked up his fifth booking of the season against Dortmund, so Marco Friedl is likely to tuck inside into his preferred centre-back role, with the fit again Ludwig Augustinsson coming into the XI at left wing-back.
Leonardo Bittencourt sustained an ankle injury in the defeat to Dortmund and could be out until mid-May, while Omer Toprak, Niclas Fullkrug, Luca Plogmann and Nick Woltemade all remain sidelined.
Joshua Sargent will be hoping for a recall in place of Yuya Osako alongside Rashica in attack, with Romano Schmid primed to replace the injured Bittencourt in behind them.
Svensson, meanwhile, will be hoping that his players are fresh rather than rusty after having a rare weekend off, with Jonathan Burkardt and Daniel Brosinski potentially options again after head and muscle injuries respectively.
Luca Kilian and Paul Nebel are both ruled out, with plenty for Svensson to ponder in terms of which attackers to select from the start. He is likely to reward the same XI which dispatched Koln providing Burkardt is passed fit.
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Veljkovic, Moisander, Friedl; Gebre Selassie, Eggestein, Mohwald, Augustinsson; Schmid; Rashica, Sargent
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Da Costa, Barreiro, Kohr, Mwene; Burkardt, Boetius; Onisiwo
We say: Werder Bremen 1-2 Mainz 05
Mainz have picked up 11 points from a possible 15, compared with Bremen losing five matches in a row, so there is little doubt which side heads into this match with more momentum.
The visitors should be fresher, too, after their match against Hertha at the weekend was postponed. We can envisage them using this to their advantage and gaining a crucial win.
Top tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.39%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 24.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.49%) and 1-2 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.32%), while for a Werder Bremen win it was 1-0 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Mainz 05 in this match.
