Mainz 05 welcome Werder Bremen to the Opel Arena on Saturday afternoon with both sides desperate for three points in their fight for survival.
Jan-Moritz Lichte's men are winless in their last four matches, but Bremen's equally poor form will give them hope that they can turn their fortunes around.
Match preview
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Mainz have made a dreadful start to the new Bundesliga campaign, winning just one of their opening 12 games.
Their six-point haul has left them in 17th position and four points from safety, with relegation already appearing a real possibility for Die Nullfunfer despite the season only being a few months old.
Goals have been a major concern for Lichte's side in 2020-21, with their 12 efforts making them the third-lowest scorers in the German top flight.
More concerning than that, however, is how star striker Jean-Philippe Mateta is responsible for over half of Mainz's total. The Frenchman's seven efforts mean he is joint-sixth on the goalscoring charts and makes the relegation candidates extremely reliant upon the 23-year-old's performances.
Bremen began 2020-21 well, winning two of their opening three league games, but things have gone drastically downhill since then.
Die Werderane are without a win since a 1-0 victory over Arminia Bielefeld in early October, drawing five and losing five of their next 10 matches.
Florian Kohfeldt's men come into this one on the back of a four-game losing streak, although the fixture list has been particularly tough in recent weeks.
Bremen have faced Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig in their last five fixtures, so will welcome the trip to Mainz as somewhat of a reprieve.
Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: DWDLLD
Werder Bremen Bundesliga form: DDLLLL
Team News
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Experienced forward Adam Szalai is a big miss for Mainz, with the 33-year-old Hungary international suffering from a meniscus injury.
Right-back Phillipp Mwene is ruled out, alongside winger Levin Oztunali who is sidelined with a hamstring problem.
Mateta should come back into the starting XI after being rested against Hertha Berlin last time out.
Kohfeldt is expected to be without winger Milot Rashica (hamstring) and centre-forwards Niclas Fullkrug (calf) and David Selke (thigh) once again, with the trio failing to recover in time from their respective problems.
That means young American John Sargent will continue up-front despite bagging just one goal all season.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Caricol, Niakhate, Hack, St.Juste, Fernandes; Stoger, Kunde, Barreiro; Quaison, Mateta
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Gross, Toprak, Friedl; Gebre Selassie, Eggestein, Mbom, Mohwald, Augustinsson; Sargent, Osako
We say: Mainz 05 1-1 Werder Bremen
Neither side are in any sort of form coming into this one, and it could be a close affair of few chances. Both clubs will see this as a huge opportunity to get their seasons back on track, and they could end up cancelling each other out.
A share of the spoils would not help either cause greatly, but it could be important come the end of the campaign.
Top betting tip
George Cannon
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 37.28% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
