Eredivisie

May 22, 2025 at 5.45pm UK

AFAS Stadion

AZ
4 - 1
Heerenveen

Meerdink (3', 21', 45'), Penetra (66')
Koopmeiners (18')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Nicolaescu (74')
Kohlert (76'), Braude (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and Heerenveen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: AZ 1-1 Almere City
Sunday, May 18 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Heerenveen

All competitions

Last Game: Heerenveen 2-0 Feyenoord
Sunday, May 18 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 69.18%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 12.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.75%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 0-1 (3.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Heerenveen
69.18% ( 7.18)	18.43% ( -2.63)	12.4% ( -4.54)

Both teams to score 49.53% (

-2.81)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.15% (

2.24)

41.85% (

-2.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.75% (

2.22)

64.25% (

-2.21)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.01% (

2.68)

10.99% (

-2.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.74% (

5.61)

35.26% (

-5.6)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.64% (

-4.98)

44.36% (

4.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.58% (

-4.34)

80.42% (

4.35)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 69.17%

Heerenveen 12.4%

Draw 18.43%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Heerenveen
2-0 @ 11.88% ( 1.23) 1-0 @ 10.76% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.66% ( -0.27) 3-0 @ 8.75% ( 1.68) 3-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.52) 4-0 @ 4.83% ( 1.31) 4-1 @ 3.93% ( 0.65) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.18) 5-0 @ 2.13% ( 0.73) 5-1 @ 1.73% ( 0.43) 4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.9% Total : 69.17%	1-1 @ 8.75% ( -1.23) 0-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.51) 2-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.7) Other @ 0.88% Total : 18.43%	0-1 @ 3.96% ( -1.05) 1-2 @ 3.56% ( -1.09) 0-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.73) 2-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.37) 1-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.48) Other @ 1.24% Total : 12.4%