Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.32%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for NAC Breda had a probability of 10.01%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.35%), while for a NAC Breda win it was 1-2 (2.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.