Eredivisie | Gameweek 28

Apr 6, 2025 at 3.45pm UK

Amsterdam ArenA

Ajax
3 - 1
NAC Breda

Taylor (32' pen.), Berghuis (35'), Mokio (76')
Mokio (69')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Sauer (9')
Kortsmit (31'), Leemans (62'), Greiml (62'), Balard (72'), Sowah (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and NAC Breda, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: PSV 0-2 Ajax
Sunday, March 30 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

NAC Breda

All competitions

Last Game: NAC Breda 1-1 Groningen
Saturday, March 29 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 75.72%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for NAC Breda had a probability of 9.37%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.66%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.96%), while for a NAC Breda win it was 1-2 (2.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	NAC Breda
75.72% ( 0.06)	14.92% ( 0.1)	9.37% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 51.49% (

-1.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.28% (

-1.06)

33.72% (

1.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.46% (

-1.22)

55.54% (

1.22)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.58% (

-0.23)

7.42% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.28% (

-0.6)

26.72% (

0.6)

NAC Breda Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.62% (

-1.08)

44.38% (

1.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.56% (

-0.89)

80.44% (

0.9)

Score Analysis

Ajax 75.71%

NAC Breda 9.37%

Draw 14.92%

Ajax	Draw	NAC Breda
2-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.35) 3-0 @ 9.66% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.37) 3-1 @ 7.85% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 6.28% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 5.1% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.13) 5-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.11) 6-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.05) 5-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.25% Total : 75.71%	1-1 @ 6.96% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.99% Total : 14.92%	1-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 2.68% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 1.09% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.78% Total : 9.37%