Eredivisie | Gameweek 26

Mar 16, 2025 at 3.45pm UK

Amsterdam ArenA

Ajax
2 - 2
AZ

Gaaei (58'), Valaker Edvardsen (85')
Taylor (22')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Buurmeester (52'), Sadiq (83')
Penetra (32'), Belic (54'), Clasie (58')
Penetra (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Frankfurt 4-1 Ajax
Thursday, March 13 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Spurs 3-1 AZ
Thursday, March 13 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 54.32%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 23.69% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.21%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (6.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.

Result
Ajax	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
54.32% ( -0.26)	21.99% ( 0.03)	23.69% ( 0.23)

Both teams to score 60.38% (

0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.28% (

0.1)

38.71% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.98% (

0.11)

61.02% (

-0.11)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.72% (

-0.05)

14.27% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.93% (

-0.09)

42.06% (

0.09)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.44% (

0.24)

29.56% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.41% (

0.29)

65.58% (

-0.3)

Score Analysis

Ajax 54.32%

AZ Alkmaar 23.69%

Draw 21.99%

Ajax	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.21% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 7.99% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 6.32% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.88% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.35% Total : 54.32%	1-1 @ 10.01% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.26% Total : 21.99%	1-2 @ 6.1% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 5.14% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.14% Total : 23.69%