Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 18.47%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.96%) and 0-2 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.03%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-0 (5.06%).