Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 47.05%. A win for Galatasaray had a probability of 29.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Galatasaray win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.