Eredivisie | Gameweek 21

Feb 2, 2025 at 7pm UK

Koning Willem II Stadion

Willem II
0 - 2
AZ

Abdirahman Ahmed (27'), Boris (30'), Bokila (84')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Parrott (28' pen.), Mijnans (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Willem II and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Willem II

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: RKC Waalwijk 2-0 Willem II
Sunday, January 26 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ferencvaros 4-3 AZ
Thursday, January 30 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 50.64%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.26%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Willem II win was 2-1 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
Willem II	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
25.85% ( 0.14)	23.51% ( 0.04)	50.64% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 57.48% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.36% (

-0.06)

43.64% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.97% (

-0.06)

66.03% (

0.07)

Willem II Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.52% (

0.08)

30.48% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.3% (

0.09)

66.7% (

-0.09)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.68% (

-0.09)

17.31% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.32% (

-0.16)

47.68% (

0.16)

Score Analysis

Willem II 25.85%

AZ Alkmaar 50.64%

Draw 23.51%

Willem II	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) Other @ 3% Total : 25.85%	1-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.51%	1-2 @ 9.64% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.26% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.12% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5.64% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 4.74% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 2.08% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.88% Total : 50.64%