/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fwillog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fazlog.png)
-
Amar Abdirahman Ahmed
27'
-
Lambert Boris
30'
-
Jeremy Bokila
84'
-
Jeremy Bokila
90'+2'
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Troy Parrott
28'
-
Sven Mijnans
42'
Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F50%2Fmaarten-martens.jpg)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 50.64%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.26%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Willem II win was 2-1 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result
Willem II
25.85%
▲
(+0.15)
Draw
23.51%
▲
(+0.05)
AZ Alkmaar
50.64%
▼
(-0.19)
Both Teams to Score:
57.48%
▲
(+0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5
56.36%
▼
(-0.07)
Under 2.5
43.64%
▲
(+0.07)
Over 3.5
33.97%
▼
(-0.07)
Under 3.5
66.03%
▲
(+0.07)
Over 4.5
17.5%
▼
(-0.05)
Under 4.5
82.5%
▲
(+0.05)
Willem II Goals
Over 0.5
69.52%
▲
(+0.08)
Under 0.5
30.48%
▼
(-0.08)
Over 1.5
33.3%
▲
(+0.10)
Under 1.5
66.7%
▼
(-0.10)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5
82.68%
▼
(-0.10)
Under 0.5
17.31%
▲
(+0.10)
Over 1.5
52.32%
▼
(-0.16)
Under 1.5
47.68%
▲
(+0.17)
Score analysis
Willem II
25.85%
Draw
23.51%
AZ Alkmaar
50.64%
Willem II
2-1
@
6.53%
▲
(+0.03)
1-0 @ 6.27% ▲ (+0.04)
2-0 @ 3.72% ▲ (+0.03)
3-1 @ 2.59% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.27% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 1.48% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 3%
Total : 25.85%
1-0 @ 6.27% ▲ (+0.04)
2-0 @ 3.72% ▲ (+0.03)
3-1 @ 2.59% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.27% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 1.48% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 3%
Total : 25.85%
Draw
1-1
@
10.99%
▲
(+0.02)
2-2 @ 5.73% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.28% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.33%
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 23.51%
2-2 @ 5.73% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.28% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.33%
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 23.51%
AZ Alkmaar
1-2
@
9.64%
▼
(-0.02)
0-1 @ 9.26% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 8.12% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 5.64% ▼ (-0.03)
0-3 @ 4.74% ▼ (-0.04)
2-3 @ 3.35% ▼ (-0.01)
1-4 @ 2.47% ▼ (-0.02)
0-4 @ 2.08% ▼ (-0.03)
2-4 @ 1.47% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.88%
Total : 50.64%
0-1 @ 9.26% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 8.12% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 5.64% ▼ (-0.03)
0-3 @ 4.74% ▼ (-0.04)
2-3 @ 3.35% ▼ (-0.01)
1-4 @ 2.47% ▼ (-0.02)
0-4 @ 2.08% ▼ (-0.03)
2-4 @ 1.47% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.88%
Total : 50.64%