Eredivisie | Gameweek 15

Dec 8, 2024 at 1.30pm UK

AFAS Stadion

AZ
2 - 1
Ajax

Parrott (65'), Lahdo (76')
Goes (46')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Godts (81')
Weghorst (36'), Sutalo (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: AZ 1-0 Heracles
Sunday, December 1 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ajax 2-2 Utrecht
Wednesday, December 4 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.84%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.92%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Ajax
43.84% ( -0.37)	23.13% ( -0.08)	33.03% ( 0.45)

Both teams to score 63.77% (

0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.52% (

0.55)

37.48% (

-0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.3% (

0.59)

59.7% (

-0.59)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.44% (

0.08)

17.56% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.9% (

0.13)

48.1% (

-0.13)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.35% (

0.51)

22.65% (

-0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.72% (

0.76)

56.28% (

-0.76)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 43.84%

Ajax 33.03%

Draw 23.13%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.49% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.25% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.03) Other @ 4% Total : 43.84%	1-1 @ 10.27% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 6.64% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.13%	1-2 @ 7.63% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.91% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.78% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 3.29% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.25% Total : 33.03%