Eredivisie | Gameweek 14

Dec 1, 2024 at 3.45pm UK

Sportpark De Weeren

Nijmegen
1 - 2
Ajax

Hansen (13')
Sano (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Weghorst (15', 48')
Rensch (31'), Weghorst (51'), Gaaei (69'), Hato (74'), Kaplan (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between NEC and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

NEC

All competitions

Last Game: Nijmegen 1-2 Utrecht
Sunday, November 24 at 11.15am in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Real Sociedad 2-0 Ajax
Thursday, November 28 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for NEC had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.58%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Ajax in this match.

Result
NEC	Draw	Ajax
32.07% ( -0.47)	22.67% ( -0.11)	45.25% ( 0.57)

Both teams to score 65.08% (

0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.41% (

0.34)

35.58% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.36% (

0.37)

57.64% (

-0.38)

NEC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.72% (

-0.1)

22.28% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.27% (

-0.15)

55.73% (

0.14)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.73% (

0.35)

16.26% (

-0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.2% (

0.63)

45.8% (

-0.64)

Score Analysis

NEC 32.07%

Ajax 45.25%

Draw 22.67%

NEC	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 5.44% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.04% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.34% Total : 32.07%	1-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.74% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.67%	1-2 @ 8.97% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 6.58% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 5.43% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 4.08% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 2.47% ( 0.07) 2-4 @ 1.85% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 1.64% ( 0.05) 3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.7% Total : 45.25%