Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 88.85%. A draw had a probability of 7.8% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 3.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.41%) and 4-0 (10.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.65%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-2 (1.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.