Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 62.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 17.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 1-0 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.