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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 51.22%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 25.2% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Feyenoord | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 51.22% ( | 23.57% ( | 25.2% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.63% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.53% ( | 44.46% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.16% ( | 66.83% ( |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.59% ( | 17.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.17% ( | 47.83% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.56% ( | 31.44% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.18% ( | 67.81% |
| Score Analysis |
| Feyenoord | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 9.68% 1-0 @ 9.57% ( 2-0 @ 8.36% ( 3-1 @ 5.64% ( 3-0 @ 4.88% ( 3-2 @ 3.26% ( 4-1 @ 2.47% ( 4-0 @ 2.13% 4-2 @ 1.43% ( Other @ 3.81% Total : 51.22% | 1-1 @ 11.06% ( 2-2 @ 5.6% ( 0-0 @ 5.47% ( 3-3 @ 1.26% Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.56% | 1-2 @ 6.4% ( 0-1 @ 6.33% ( 0-2 @ 3.66% 1-3 @ 2.47% ( 2-3 @ 2.16% 0-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 2.76% Total : 25.2% |