KNVB Beker | Round of 16

Jan 14, 2025 at 5.45pm UK

AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne

AZ
2 - 0
Ajax

Goes (36'), Meerdink (89')
Koopmeiners (81')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Traore (77'), Baas (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's KNVB Beker clash between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

KNVB Beker

Last Game: PSV 2-2 AZ
Saturday, January 11 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Ajax

All competitions

KNVB Beker

Last Game: Ajax 2-1 RKC Waalwijk
Saturday, January 11 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 48.61%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 28.37% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.85%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Ajax
48.61% ( -0.01)	23.01% ( 0)	28.37% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 61.46% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.63% (

-0.01)

39.37% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.29% (

-0.01)

61.71% (

0.01)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.53% (

-0.01)

16.46% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.83% (

-0.01)

46.16% (

0.01)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.57% (

-0)

26.43%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.4%

61.6% (

-0)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 48.61%

Ajax 28.37%

Draw 23.01%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 9.42% 1-0 @ 7.85% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.08% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.67% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.26% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.77% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.56% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.92% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.7% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 3.47% Total : 48.61%	1-1 @ 10.44% 2-2 @ 6.27% 0-0 @ 4.35% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.67% ( -0) Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.01%	1-2 @ 6.95% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.79% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.85% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.08% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.78% 0-3 @ 1.71% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.26% Total : 28.37%