Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 64.36%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 16.46%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.38%) and 1-0 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.76%), while for a Groningen win it was 1-2 (4.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Groningen
64.36% ( 0.18)	19.18% ( -0.05)	16.46% ( -0.13)

Both teams to score 57.96% (

-0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.79% (

-0.03)

36.2% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.68% (

-0.04)

58.32% (

0.04)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.36% (

0.04)

10.63% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.53% (

0.08)

34.46% (

-0.08)

Groningen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.86% (

-0.18)

35.14% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.11% (

-0.18)

71.89% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 64.36%

Groningen 16.46%

Draw 19.18%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Groningen
2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.01% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.11% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.15% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.76% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 0.96% Other @ 3.86% Total : 64.36%	1-1 @ 8.76% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.13% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.74% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.22% Total : 19.18%	1-2 @ 4.58% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 3.91% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.54% Total : 16.46%