Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 40.06%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.61%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest Groningen win was 2-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.