Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.17%) and 2-0 (5.81%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.