Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Galatasaray win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 37.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Galatasaray win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.86%) and 2-0 (5.43%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.