Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 76.83%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 8.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.82%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.