Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 56.46%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 23.46% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.88%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 (5.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.