CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals

Mar 22, 2024 at 2.15am UK

AT&T Stadium

Panama
0 - 3
Mexico

Carrasquilla (85'), Carrasquilla (85')

FT(HT: 0-4)

Alvarez (40', 40'), Quinones (43', 43'), Pineda (67', 67')
Chavez (52'), Chavez (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Panama and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Panama

All competitions

Last Game: Panama 3-1 Costa Rica
Tuesday, November 21 at 2am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current League A Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Panama	4	7	10
2	Trinidad and Tobago	4	1	9
3	Martinique	4	-1	7
4	Guatemala	4	-2	4
5	Curacao	4	-1	3
6	El Salvador	4	-4	1

Mexico

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Mexico 2-3 Colombia
Sunday, December 17 at 12am in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mexico	3	5	6
2	Qatar	3	0	4
3	Honduras	3	-3	4
4	Haiti	3	-2	3

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 38.58%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.

Result
Panama	Draw	Mexico
38.58% ( 0.76)	27.29% ( 0.13)	34.12% ( -0.89)

Both teams to score 49.8% (

-0.51)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.31% (

-0.59)

55.69% (

0.6)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.16% (

-0.49)

76.84% (

0.49)

Panama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.95% (

0.16)

28.05% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.29% (

0.2)

63.71% (

-0.19)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.22% (

-0.87)

30.78% (

0.87)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.95% (

-1.03)

67.05% (

1.04)

Score Analysis

Panama 38.57%

Mexico 34.12%

Draw 27.29%

Panama	Draw	Mexico
1-0 @ 10.97% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.96% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.88% Total : 38.57%	1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.29%	0-1 @ 10.17% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 6% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.09% Total : 34.12%