CONCACAF Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Nov 17, 2023 at 3am UK

Estadio Ricardo Saprissa Ayma

Costa Rica
0 - 3
Panama

Campbell (10'), Campbell (10'), Cesar Arboine Carmona (43'), Arboine (43'), Aguilera (59'), Aguilera (59'), Gonzalez (83'), Pablo Vargas (83'), Bran (86'), Bran (86')

FT(HT: 0-4)

Murillo (4', 4'), Fajardo (29', 29'), Waterman Ruiz (60', 60')
Godoy (59'), Godoy (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Costa Rica and Panama, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Costa Rica

All competitions

Last Game: Costa Rica 1-4 UAE
Tuesday, September 12 at 4pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Panama	3	2	7
2	Costa Rica	3	1	4
3	Martinique	3	-2	3
4	El Salvador	3	-1	2

Panama

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Panama 3-0 Guatemala
Wednesday, October 18 at 2am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current League A Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Panama	4	7	10
2	Trinidad and Tobago	4	1	9
3	Martinique	4	-1	7
4	Guatemala	4	-2	4
5	Curacao	4	-1	3
6	El Salvador	4	-4	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 43.73%. A win for Costa Rica had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Costa Rica win was 1-0 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Panama would win this match.

Result
Costa Rica	Draw	Panama
30.3% ( 1.82)	25.97% ( 0.38)	43.73% ( -2.2)

Both teams to score 52.69% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.58% (

-0.68)

51.42% (

0.68)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.76% (

-0.59)

73.24% (

0.59)

Costa Rica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.78% (

0.98)

31.22% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.44% (

1.13)

67.56% (

-1.13)

Panama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.6% (

-1.32)

23.4% (

1.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.62% (

-1.96)

57.38% (

1.96)

Score Analysis

Costa Rica 30.3%

Panama 43.72%

Draw 25.97%

Costa Rica	Draw	Panama
1-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.45) 2-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.3) 2-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.39) 3-1 @ 2.79% ( 0.19) 3-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.2) Other @ 2.92% Total : 30.3%	1-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.97%	0-1 @ 10.6% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 8.97% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 7.71% ( -0.41) 1-3 @ 4.34% ( -0.28) 0-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.35) 2-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.17) 0-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.19) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.99% Total : 43.72%