Mexico national football team
CONCACAF Gold Cup | Quarter-Finals
Jul 9, 2023 at 3.10am UK
AT&T Stadium
Costa Rica national football team

Mexico
2 - 0
Costa Rica

Pineda (52' pen., 52' pen.), Sanchez (87', 87')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's CONCACAF Gold Cup clash between Mexico and Costa Rica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

All competitions
CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Mexico 0-1 Qatar
Monday, July 3 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Gold Cup

Costa Rica

All competitions
CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Costa Rica 6-4 Martinique
Wednesday, July 5 at 2am in CONCACAF Gold Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 70.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 9.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.08%) and 3-0 (10.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (4.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.

Result
MexicoDrawCosta Rica
70.89%19.31%9.8%
Both teams to score 38.27%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.76%52.24%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.05%73.95%
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.46%13.54%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.38%40.61%
Costa Rica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.27%55.73%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.68%88.31%
Score Analysis
    Mexico 70.87%
    Costa Rica 9.8%
    Draw 19.31%
MexicoDrawCosta Rica
1-0 @ 15.08%
2-0 @ 15.08%
3-0 @ 10.05%
2-1 @ 8.82%
3-1 @ 5.88%
4-0 @ 5.03%
4-1 @ 2.94%
5-0 @ 2.01%
3-2 @ 1.72%
5-1 @ 1.18%
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 70.87%
1-1 @ 8.82%
0-0 @ 7.55%
2-2 @ 2.58%
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 19.31%
0-1 @ 4.41%
1-2 @ 2.58%
0-2 @ 1.29%
Other @ 1.52%
Total : 9.8%

How you voted: 1st ranked Group B vs 2nd position Group C

1st ranked Group B
70.0%
Draw
30.0%
2nd position Group C
0.0%
20
Head to Head
Jan 30, 2022 11pm
Third Round
Mexico
0-0
Costa Rica
> Preview
Sep 6, 2021 12am
Third Round
Costa Rica
0-1
Mexico

Jose Blanco Mora (35'), Calvo (37'), Moya (42'), Guzman (68')
Pineda (45+1' pen.)
Gallardo (45+3'), Montes (73'), Alvarez (75')
> Preview
Mar 30, 2021 9pm
Friendlies 1
Costa Rica
0-1
Mexico

Waston (18'), Cruz (20')
Lozano (89')
Oct 1, 2020 3am
Friendlies 1
Mexico
P-P
Costa Rica
Jun 30, 2019 2.30am
Quarter-Finals
Mexico
1-1
Costa Rica
 Mexico win 5-4 on penalties
> Preview