CONCACAF Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Nov 21, 2023 at 2am UK

Estadio Rommel Fernandez Gutierrez

Panama
3 - 1
Costa Rica

Fajardo (20', 20'), Luis Rodriguez (23', 23'), Joel Barcenas (43' pen., 43' pen.)
Fajardo (2'), Fajardo (2'), Escobar (54'), Escobar (54')

FT(HT: 6-0)

Calvo (51', 51')
Calvo (79'), Calvo (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Panama and Costa Rica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Panama

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Costa Rica 0-3 Panama
Friday, November 17 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current League A Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Panama	4	7	10
2	Trinidad and Tobago	4	1	9
3	Martinique	4	-1	7
4	Guatemala	4	-2	4
5	Curacao	4	-1	3
6	El Salvador	4	-4	1

Costa Rica

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Costa Rica 0-3 Panama
Friday, November 17 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Panama	3	2	7
2	Costa Rica	3	1	4
3	Martinique	3	-2	3
4	El Salvador	3	-1	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 67.96%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 12.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.12%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Panama would win this match.

Result
Panama	Draw	Costa Rica
67.96% ( 0.04)	19.46% ( -0)	12.59% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 46.68% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.05% (

-0.06)

45.95% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.74% (

-0.06)

68.26% (

0.06)

Panama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.5% (

-0)

12.5% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.51% (

-0.01)

38.49% (

0.02)

Costa Rica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.35% (

-0.1)

46.65% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.78% (

-0.07)

82.22% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Panama 67.95%

Costa Rica 12.59%

Draw 19.46%

Panama	Draw	Costa Rica
2-0 @ 12.6% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.61% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.74% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6.66% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.46% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.89% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.44% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.01% Total : 67.95%	1-1 @ 9.25% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.71% Total : 19.46%	0-1 @ 4.45% 1-2 @ 3.53% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.7% ( -0) 2-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.99% Total : 12.59%