Friendlies 1

Dec 17, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio Azteca

Mexico
2 - 3
Colombia

Govea (40', 40'), Martinez (50', 50')
Gonzalez (90'), Gonzalez (90')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Reyes (55', 55'), Martinez (69', 69'), Gomez (90+2', 90+2')
Vera (61'), Vera (61'), Martinez (90+4'), Martinez (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's friendly clash between Mexico and Colombia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Mexico 2-0 Honduras (4-2 pen.)
Wednesday, November 22 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mexico	3	5	6
2	Qatar	3	0	4
3	Honduras	3	-3	4
4	Haiti	3	-2	3

Colombia

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Colombia 1-0 Venezuela
Sunday, December 10 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 47.84%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Colombia had a probability of 24.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.68%), while for a Colombia win it was 0-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.

Result
Mexico	Draw	Colombia
47.84% ( -0.4)	27.27% ( 0.08)	24.88% ( 0.32)

Both teams to score 45.26% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.77% (

-0.07)

59.23% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.35% (

-0.05)

79.64% (

0.05)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.15% (

-0.22)

24.85% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.55% (

-0.31)

59.44% (

0.3)

Colombia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.22% (

0.25)

39.78% (

-0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.55% (

0.23)

76.45% (

-0.24)

Score Analysis

Mexico 47.84%

Colombia 24.88%

Draw 27.27%

Mexico	Draw	Colombia
1-0 @ 13.76% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.58% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 8.83% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.45% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.1% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.43% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.25% Total : 47.84%	1-1 @ 12.68% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.88% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.63% Total : 27.27%	0-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 4.2% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.39% Total : 24.88%