Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 48.34%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Uzbekistan had a probability of 25.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Uzbekistan win it was 0-1 (8.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.