Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 45.73%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 29.31% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.25%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 1-0 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%).